The war’s goals as set by the government — the collapse of Hamas and the release of the hostages — have become empty words. Only a few people, wearing blinders, still believe that Israel can achieve these aims.
Israel keeps wallowing in a war lacking any political purpose while increasing its hold on Gaza by expanding its buffer zone, building military outposts and roads, and pushing Palestinians into half of the enclave. At the same time, it’s renewing humanitarian aid under management by an American company and secured by the Israeli army.
An undeclared war goal is to put up a screen that will allow this messianic, nationalist government to achieve its main aim: taking steps toward an annexation in the West Bank and preparing the ground for bringing settlers back to Gaza.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has managed to push through a long list of steps toward this end. He has established a full-on apartheid regime by taking civilian powers from the military, siphoned billions to settlements, funded new roads that skirt Palestinian villages, built dozens of illegal settler outposts, demolished illegally built Palestinian homes and encouraged settler terrorism by having law enforcement and the military turn a blind eye.
There has also been a notable propaganda achievement: separating 13 neighborhoods from their mother settlements and declaring them independent settlements. Most new outposts are grazing farms that beleaguer Palestinians with ills like violence, the expulsion of whole communities and the takeover of land. But these new farms, each housing a family or members of the so-called hilltop youth, aren’t doing anything demographically.
These real and imaginary moves bring into sharp relief the failings of the Netanyahu government. More Israelis are moving out of the West Bank than are moving in, whether from Israel proper or abroad. Young people are leaving, but the number of poor people, mostly from the ultra-Orthodox community, has increased.
There has been a notable “success,” a cornerstone of the government’s nationalist, racist and messianic worldview: making Israel a pariah state both in the region and around the world. The governing coalition is putting into practice Balaam’s famous words in the Book of Numbers: “lo, it is a people that shall dwell alone, and shall not be reckoned among the nations.”
This declaration was originally interpreted as a promise that the Jewish people would not mix with the gentiles and would preserve its Jewish identity and unique lifestyle. But ministers of the current government have made this pledge an expression of Jewish supremacy and total disregard for the international community.
A study by the T-Politography research group shows that Israel has been suffering hits to its image in the region, in the United States, in the European Union and among Jews around the world.
Over the past decade, the Americans’ approach to Israel has deeply changed in three ways: gradually fewer direct attempts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, beginning in 2014 with the failure of John Kerry’s mission; an erosion of the “shared values” and “strategic partnership” relationship; and a decline in support for the two-state solution, reaching a nadir in 2024.
The EU has treated Israel positively since the current government formed, considering the parties in it. Following Yair Lapid’s efforts as foreign minister and prime minister to rebuild relations after a lost decade, the EU didn’t want to damage the delicate fabric.
On October 7, the EU stood with Israel in no uncertain terms. But during the war in Gaza it began to experience a plurality of voices. This diversity, which has intensified over time, usually blocks a unified EU voice on the Israeli government, even when it’s accused of ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza, and with a warrant out against the prime minister at the International Criminal Court.
Arab countries with diplomatic or other relations with Israel, which once were on their way to normalization, have become hostile. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the top issue in Arab countries’ foreign policy. They’re still calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital and an end to the occupation. All countries view the conflict as a source of regional instability and keep pushing for an agreement.
Egypt, a cornerstone of regional peace, is focusing on mediation between Israel and Hamas and is harshly questioning the effectiveness of the international community. It firmly objects to the Israeli law hamstringing the UNRWA refugee agency, and rejects notions of population transfer brandished by Israeli cabinet members.
Jordan, our partner in peace for nearly three decades, has dramatically ramped up its criticism. It’s particularly concerned about Israel’s policy in the West Bank and on the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa, has called Israel’s airstrikes “barbaric,” and has accused Israel of ethnic cleansing. Jordan’s call this year for an arms embargo on Israel is without precedence.
Saudi Arabia, which was on the road to normalization with Israel, is now advancing an “Israel bypass route” and has been calling for international involvement that would keep Israel out of the process. The Saudis firmly object to Israeli steps against UNRWA and decline any normalization with Israel without an end to the war and the renewal of the diplomatic process leading to a Palestinian state.
The United Arab Emirates, the spearhead of the Abraham Accords, is now focusing on humanitarian aid to Gaza and is critical of the situation in Gaza. It objects to Israel’s steps against UNRWA and has ramped down its efforts to craft joint plans for the future.
Qatar, the leading mediator, is calling for an immediate and permanent cease-fire and for the border crossings to reopen. It has bolstered UNRWA with $49 million in financial support and has accused Israel of genocide, even an attempt to “exterminate the Palestinian people.”
Bahrain has called for an international peace conference and international recognition of a Palestinian state, on top of its educational initiatives.
The major trends in the Arab world are worrying: a concerted effort to create an “Israel bypass route,” political and financial support for UNRWA in light of the Israeli legislation, wholesale opposition to Israeli notions of transfer and a personalization of the conflict in the form of direct criticism of Israeli leaders.
Turkey’s policy, with its roots in neo-Ottoman and pan-Islamic ideology, is increasingly supporting Hamas while being increasingly hostile to Israel. Iran, the patron of the battered “ring of fire” around Israel, is maintaining its objection to Israel’s existence, but its strategic priorities are changing.
Urgent internal and external challenges have diverted Iran’s focus from the Palestinian issue. Still, Iran continues to support the “resistance” and declares that Israel has failed to achieve its war aims.
At the same time, there has been a dramatic shift among Jewish American organizations. This year AIPAC, for years a cornerstone of support for Israel, has reduced its support for a two-state solution to nothing. The Anti-Defamation League had withdrawn its support for such a solution, and the American Jewish Committee has almost entirely stopped addressing the issue. Only J Street is voicing some criticism.
The international legal situation also isn’t encouraging. The slow but steady progress toward annexation under Smotrich’s leadership and with Benjamin Netanyahu’s support is perceived as an irreversible process leading to apartheid, and then to sanctions and boycotts.
Israel is at a critical crossroads. We are witnessing a transition from almost unconditional American support to a more reserved approach, a distancing by moderate Arab countries, a growing rift with the American Jewish community and a strengthening of the Palestinian narrative in the international arena.
The conflict hasn’t gone away, it’s only changing shape. While Israel is claiming triumphs on the battlefield, it’s being roundly defeated in the international consciousness. In the absence of any clear policy or steps toward a solution, Israel is heading toward an isolation that could critically damage it economically and politically in the coming years.
First published in Haaretz, 05.06.2025
