“I am sick and tired of fighting — its glory is all moonshine; even success the most brilliant is over dead and mangled bodies, with the anguish and lamentations of distant families appealing to me for sons, husbands, and fathers. … It is only those who have never heard a shot, never heard the shriek and groans of the wounded and lacerated … that cry aloud for more blood, more vengeance, more desolation.”
William Tecumseh Sherman
Hamas’ nauseating depravity when returning the remains of two viciously murdered young children — 4-year-old Ariel and 10-month-old Kfir Bibas — and the body of a woman the group falsely claimed to be the boys’ mother Shiri, should surprise no one. Rarely in human history has there been a more vile, gruesome and murderous terror organization.
It makes no difference if it was an independent Salafist terror group that held the Bibases since October 7, 2023. The January cease-fire deal that sees hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners was signed with Hamas, not splinter groups.
Hamas, if you recall, is the organization that Benjamin Netanyahu boasted for more than 16 months would be “eradicated,” “annihilated,” “destroyed” and “toppled.” This is the same Hamas that Netanyahu for years was busy indirectly funding and strengthening, arrogantly explaining that this was how he would weaken the Palestinian Authority. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, Donald Trump’s new worst-ever enemy of humanity is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, not Hamas.
The fallout of Hamas’ transfer of an anonymous body, one reportedly not linked by DNA to any of the hostages taken on October 7, 2023, is still unclear. Israel considers this a flagrant violation of the cease-fire and hostage-release agreement — which it is — something Israel says threatens not only the weekly exchange due Saturday but also the future of the agreement.
Which brings us to that “future,” aka Stage 2 of the deal. No one in his or her right mind believes that Netanyahu intends to implement this stage. The insistence that it should happen and the optimism that it will happen courtesy Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, is commendable, but his optimism and resolve will soon meet Netanyahu’s deceit and manipulations.
Toward that end, Netanyahu reshuffled the Israeli negotiating team; basically, he dismissed Mossad chief David Barnea and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar as the top negotiators. Since fealty is the only relevant criterion for Netanyahu, he appointed a loyal and able crony, Ron Dermer, to head the team. His purpose is clear: stall, delay, procrastinate, introduce new conditions, relitigate the existing agreement, try to derail it and hope that in the process, the cease-fire will collapse naturally.
The hostages? In Netanyahu’s world, they’re an expendable distraction. This forms the basis of his spurious pledge to his coalition partners that Trump assured him that “the war will resume,” a course he intends to pursue because, as he says, there can’t be a Stage 2 unless Hamas is totally destroyed, something he unfortunately has failed to do for nearly a year and a half.
There are basically four possible scenarios for the coming weeks.
Stage 2 goes into effect after the exact sequencing is agreed on — the details were taken care of in the January agreement — and implementation begins.
Stage 2 isn’t signed and in its place comes an indefinite extension of Stage 1 — as stipulated by the agreement if Stage 2 isn’t mutually concluded. This extension would include the continued cessation of hostilities but not further hostage releases or a reduction of Israeli forces in the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors on Day 42 of the agreement — eight days from now — or the Israeli withdrawal from most of Gaza scheduled for Day 50, March 9, or a declaration of a permanent cease-fire.
A stop-gap combination of extending Stage 1 while implementing limited elements of Stage 2. How this would affect both the hostage release and the army’s withdrawal is anyone’s guess.
A resumption of the war, based on the collapse of the cease-fire.
The first three scenarios will continue to be dissected as the negotiations take place. So it’s more important to explore what exactly is meant by “resuming the war.”
Field Marshal Bezalel Smotrich and General of the Armies Itamar Ben-Gvir are the two main advocates of renewing the war, destroying Hamas and settling Gaza. In his army days, Smotrich served as a clerk for only 18 months, not the normal three-year service for male conscripts. Ben-Gvir, meanwhile, never served in the military, which didn’t want him because of his subversive, far-right political activities.
Ben-Gvir has already left the government, possibly temporarily, because of the cease-fire and hostage release agreement, and Smotrich threatens to do the same every other day. Members of Netanyahu’s Likud party tout the same line. Why shouldn’t they if Netanyahu told them he received assurances from Trump that he can renew the war?
But what would a resumption of the war achieve? Nothing. Bomb Gaza or deploy two or three divisions? To achieve what? And suffer how many casualties? Does the military have any attainable deliverables? Maybe it does, but on a very tactical level.
Is there an overriding political objective from which military means and operational goals are derived? No. There has never been a political goal in terms of a postwar political framework and an entity to fill the vacuum in governance. Israel refused to engage the United States in this respect, which is precisely Israel’s predicament at this point.
Netanyahu says the Trump “plan” to empty Gaza by expelling 2.3 million Palestinians and building a “Riviera” there is his postwar plan. This is farcical. It’s doubtful that even Trump takes him seriously on this. Trump spewed out a status-quo-rattling idea whose feasibility is zero. Netanyahu’s turning it into his strategy is tragically laughable.
If the objective is to destroy Hamas as a military force and political entity, there is only one very costly way to do it: occupy Gaza. But that entails owning Gaza — food, water, medicine, electricity, humanitarian aid, law and order, social services. Is Israel really intent on doing this, or equipped?
Of course not. Imagine Netanyahu finding the pretext to resume the war. He occupies Gaza, eradicates Hamas and then calls Trump and says: “I’ve done what you expected of me; now it’s ready for you to take it, own it and build a Riviera as you said.” And Trump grumbles, “Nah, I’m busy with Ukraine and Taiwan now. But great job.” Who then stays with Gaza?
So the “resumption of war” is nothing but a hollow slogan designed to placate political allies without whom Netanyahu’s government is in danger. But wars are the epitome of the unpredictable and the realm of unintended consequences. If like Netanyahu you set out to derail the agreement and incessantly promise to resume the war, the war can start again — however futile, wasteful and imprudent this path may be.
First published in Haaretz, 21.02.2025
